india's GDP Growth : On A Slowing path ?
- Govt lowers growth forecast for 2007 to 8.7%; Oct-Dec-07 growth slows to 8.4% (2006: 9.6%) amid high interest rates, slowing exports, industrial production; growth forecast by IMF - 8.75%; ADB - 8.5%; WB - 8.4%
- Economist: Limits on growth sustainability (owing to poor infrastructure, govt debt) and trickle down effect
- World Bank: Strong investment but risks include global risk aversion impacting capital inflows, high oil prices
- Shah: Poor monetary policy mechanism will limit the use of interest rate during economic slowdown, will impact recent boom in investment and growth
- S&P (not online): Growth to moderate; stable outlook on improving govt finances, domestic demand led growth, limited impact of global financial turmoil, corporate earnings supporting equity markets
- Fitch: Capital inflows will finance current a/c deficit; current investment boom may not be sustained in medium-term
- Morgan Stanley: Soft landing in 2008 as monetary tightening reduced consumption and supply constraints ease; risks include U.S. slowdown and global risk aversion
